Ray Kurzweil, a world-renowned scientist and author of The Singularity is N One of the changes he thinks are possible: Scientists may finally crack immortality.ear, thinks the world as we know it will be unrecognizable in 20 years. “I and many other scientists now believe that in around 20 years we will have the means to reprogramme our bodies’ stone-age software so we can halt, then reverse, aging,” he writes in The Sun. “Then nanotechnology will let us live for ever. Ultimately, nanobots will replace blood cells and do their work thousands of times more effectively.” Kurzweil, whose fans include Bill Gates adn Bill Clinton, makes a number of other substantial claims, such as humans being able to replace all failing organs with artificial ones. He says we’ll be able to scuba dive for hours without oxygen, and write entire books within minutes thanks to advanced nanotechnology. Oh, virtual sex will also be commonplace in the not-so-distant future. Kurzweil’s absurd-sounding proclamations stem from the fact that technological progress is growing at an exponential rate. “Computer technology and our understanding of genes — our body’s software programs — are accelerating at an incredible rate,” he writes. His theory of the Law of Accelerating Returns, suggests there will be another “billion-fold” increase in technology over the next quarter century. “In reality, the time needed for technology to double is constantly decreasing,” Inc’s Kevin Bailey explains. “The next thing to realize with an exponential curve, is that at a certain point progress relative to time skyrockets up. The increase in technology that once took 20 years now takes 10, and then 5, and then 2.5, and then 1.25, and then .75 years, and then on and on. Kurzweil claims that we are right at the beginning of the sharp upturn that’s characteristic of exponential curves.” Kurzweil thinks we’re just beginning to tap into the possibilities artificial intelligence can bring, and the advancements will only get more wild. We’re already using it in small ways to help us land airplanes and conduct searches on Google. “These technologies should not seem at all fanciful,” says Kurzweil. “Our phones now perform tasks we wouldn’t have dreamed possible 20 years ago. When I was a student in 1965, my university’s only computer
Big typo/formatting-screw-up in the first sentence needs to be fixed.
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This kind of assertion makes no logical sense. Since when did "immortality" mean living another 20 years? I thought "immortality" would last longer than that.What a ripoff!
ReplyDeleteSeriously, Kurzweil should realize that we can tell if a longevity breakthrough has happened ONLY RETROSPECTIVELY, by looking in the rear-view mirror, so to speak. And that means someone has to observe that thousands of people have lived longer that 120 years, and in good physical and cognitive shape. It would make more sense to say that if you can survive another 200 years while staying healthy and functional, with no obvious limits to your additional life expectancy, then you might know what you had to do to overcome aging. So set some unridiculous years for this outcome, like well into the 23rd Century.
Yes, the Singularity is NEAR, in the first sentence. Venturist Church, maybe, but if/when this happens and people start accessing the technology to rebuild/replace organs, I'm not sure it will take long to figure out that it's working. There will be some hit and miss, but over all, a new heart that doesn't seem to fail will be noticeably quickly. Not so much the realization that Wow, I'm living a long time, as it is Wow, I'm not dying, and I should be.
ReplyDeleteHey you stole your text from http://www.businessinsider.com/scientist-says-immortality-only-20-years-away-2012-7 !
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